HK50 Analysis: Impacts and Trading Outlook – April 12, 2025

First Section: Closing Price, Daily Change, and Weekly Trend

As of 4:00 PM EST on April 10, 2025 (Thursday), the closing price of HK50 (Hang Seng Index) was 20,914.69 points, up 1.13% for the day, ending a multi-day losing streak. However, on a weekly chart, the index showed weakness, down 8.47% or 1,935.12 points for the week, marking the worst weekly percentage drop since February 2018 and the largest point drop since March 2020.

Key Drivers

1. Geopolitical Tensions

This week, U.S.-China trade relations returned to the spotlight. According to Reuters on April 11, as the U.S. plans to update its tariff policy on China on April 2, investors’ concerns over global supply chains and export markets intensified, putting pressure on tech and consumer stocks. This uncertainty significantly impacted the Hong Kong stock market.

2. Impact of Economic Data

The release of inflation data further increased market volatility. Bloomberg reported on April 10 that the latest economic data showed a slowdown in growth prospects, keeping investors highly vigilant about potential monetary policy adjustments by the central bank. Although the Chinese government attempted to stabilize the market through national fund stock purchases and corporate buybacks, overall sentiment remained bleak.

3. Sector Performance Variation

Notably, amidst the overall downward trend, chipmakers such as Hua Hong Semiconductor and SMIC showed some resilience. These companies recorded strong gains earlier this week, demonstrating the risk-resistant capability of certain sectors. This divergence reflects changes in the market’s internal structure and offers insights for future investment strategies.

Technical Analysis

Currently, the trend for HK50 remains bearish, but due to the lack of clear support and resistance levels as well as moving average data, our analysis mainly relies on price action. The current price level is nearing a critical psychological threshold, and a break below 21,000 points could trigger a more substantial correction. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to decline, indicating strong selling pressure in the market.

Market Background

From a broader market perspective, major global indices generally declined this week. For instance, the S&P 500 index fell by 3.5% this week, while the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped by 4.2%. This indicates that not just the Hong Kong market, but investors worldwide are dealing with uncertainties and declining risk appetites.

Outlook

Looking ahead to next week, the market will continue to be influenced by geopolitical dynamics, especially with the upcoming release of U.S. CPI data on April 14. This key economic indicator could provide guidance for the Federal Reserve’s future monetary policy path, indirectly affecting HK50’s performance. Additionally, considering BYD’s financial results released on March 24, the market may have already positioned itself in anticipation of potential policy changes.

In summary, in the short term, HK50 is likely to maintain a volatile pattern, and investors need to closely monitor developments in the U.S.-China trade negotiations and the release of relevant macroeconomic data. In the long run, global economic growth expectations and the policy environment remain the core factors determining market direction. Investors are advised to maintain a cautious approach and adjust their portfolios timely to handle possible significant fluctuations.

Disclaimer: This article is for reference only…