NAS100 Analysis: Impact and Trading Outlook – April 12, 2025

Section 1: Closing Price and Weekly Trend Summary

As of 4:00 PM EST on April 10 (Thursday), the NAS100 index closed at 18,343.57, down 4.19% from the previous trading day. Throughout the week, market sentiment has been hit by various factors, showing an overall downward trend. Although there was a slight rebound near the close on Thursday, the index still failed to break through the key resistance level, and technical indicators show a moderately bearish trend.

Key Driving Factors Analysis

1. Impact of Economic Data on the Market

According to the latest U.S. GDP final report (March 27), the growth rate was slightly below expectations, heightening investor concerns about future economic prospects. Additionally, last Thursday’s (April 10) unemployment claims exceeded expectations, indicating a potential slowdown in the labor market. This data directly led to a decrease in market risk appetite, putting pressure on the tech-heavy NAS100 index.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Release Date: March 27, 2025

2. Uncertainty in Trade Negotiations

Recently, U.S.-China trade relations have become tense again, with the U.S. announcing updates to tariff policies on China to be made on April 2, increasing market fragility. According to a Reuters report (April 11), some companies have begun adjusting their supply chains in response to potential new tariff measures. This uncertainty not only dampened investor confidence but also negatively impacted the stock prices of companies linked to global supply chains.

Source: Reuters (April 11)

3. Changes in Central Bank Policy Expectations

With recent hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials, the market widely anticipates a tightening of monetary policy in the coming months. This expectation is already reflected in the bond yield curve, with long-term rates rising significantly, thus increasing the financing costs for high-valuation tech stocks. According to CNBC (April 12), several analysts warn that if the Fed adopts a more aggressive rate hike strategy, the NAS100 may face more significant correction pressure.

Source: CNBC (April 12)

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, the current trend of the NAS100 is moderately bearish. Below is a detailed technical level analysis:

  • Support Level: 16,590
  • Resistance Level: Not provided (need to watch if future movements can break the current range)
  • Moving Averages:
    • 20-day Moving Average: 19,290
    • The current price is below the 20-day moving average, indicating a clear weak signal.

Notably, within the past week, the NAS100 briefly fell below the critical psychological mark of 17,500 but quickly rebounded to the current level. However, if the index continues to drop and falls below the support level of 16,590, it could trigger a larger-scale technical sell-off.

From the perspective of the broader market, the main stock indices have all recorded varying degrees of decline this week. Notably, the S&P 500 index dropped by 3.57%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 2.89%. In comparison, the NAS100 has underperformed, highlighting the unique challenges faced by the technology sector.

Moreover, the VIX volatility index climbed to a high of 42.35 this week, reflecting a heightened caution among market participants regarding future uncertainties. In this environment, there is a noticeable trend of funds flowing towards defensive assets like gold and bonds.

Outlook: Projections for Next Week’s Market Dynamics

Looking ahead to the upcoming week, the following events may significantly affect the NAS100:

1. U.S. CPI Data (April 14, EST at 1:30 PM): The performance of inflation data will directly influence the Federal Reserve’s future monetary policy path. If inflation data exceeds expectations, it may lead to a further devaluation of risk assets.

2. Progress in Trade Negotiations: Although specific dates have not been finalized, the market generally expects U.S. and China to accelerate negotiations in the coming weeks. Any positive or negative news could provoke significant market reactions.

Considering the above factors, we believe the NAS100 is likely to remain volatile in the short term, and investors should closely monitor the stability of support levels and guidance from macroeconomic data. Additionally, it is advisable to maintain moderate exposure to risk to handle potential sudden events.

Conclusion

In summary, the NAS100 experienced a significant downturn last week, mainly affected by weak economic data, uncertainty in trade negotiations, and changes in monetary policy expectations. Technically, the index is currently in a moderately bearish trend, and attention should be focused on the defense of key support levels. Looking forward, the market will continue to be driven by macroeconomic data and geopolitical factors, and investors need to remain agile with their strategies.

Disclaimer: This article is for reference only…